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Doorashada Maddaxtinimada 2017: Guushu Waa xagee?

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Wednesday November 08, 2017 - 00:44:33 in Maqaallo by Wariye Tiriko
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    Doorashada Maddaxtinimada 2017: Guushu Waa xagee?

    Doorashada Maddaxtinimada 2017: Guushu Waa xagee?

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Doorashada Maddaxtinimada 2017: Guushu Waa xagee?
Silsilada Mutadawiciinta ayaa Daraasad mug wayn leh ku samysay codka xisbiga kulmiye uu ka heli doono lixda gobal
ee doorashadu ka dhici doonto. Daraasada ayaa loo maray dariiq dad ka kooban qaybaha kala duwan ee bulshada lagu waydiinayey cida ay u codayn
doonaan saddexda xisbi qaran. Waxay darasadan ka qaybqaatay dad dhan 453 qof oo lagu saleeyay tirada dadka kaadhka codbixinta qaatay ee degmooyinka gobalada dalka ( the method was qualitative study) oo munadu tahay hadba sida ugu fudud ee dadka loola kulmi karaayay (convenience
sampling) Wadarta guud ee cod bixiyayaasha dalka oo dhan waa 704, 089. Doorashadan ayaa dadka degmooyinka dalku ay 70% ilaa 85
waxay codkooda u bixinayaan hanan deegamaysan. Iyadooy, 15% ilaa 30% codkooda ku bixin doonan siday ay musharaxinta ugu qanceen siyaasadahooda, aqoontooda, waayo aragnimadooda iyo kartidooda. Darasaadu waxay xusaysaa in Kulmiye doorashooyinkii hore
ee dalka ka dhacay u ku xoog badnaa, gobalada Maroodijeex,


Togdheer, Sanaag iyo Sool. Maanta xisbigii UDUB ee Gobalada Awdal iyo Saaxil ku xoog badnaa waa ka baxay saaxada siyaasada. Waxaayna daraasadu si gaara u daristay cida labadan gobal ay cododkooda siin doonaan.hadaba kulmiye ma kasban doonaa kalsoonida labadan gobal?
Afartii gobal ee hore se tageeradooda ma haysan doona? Bal si aynu suaalaha uga jawaabno aynu eegno, tusaale ahaan gobalka Maroodijeex oo Kulmiye helay 44.7% doorashadii maddaxtinimada ee 2010 – Sawir bay inaga siin doontaa tani gobalada kale ee afarta ah.
Gobalka Maroodijeex waxa uu ka kooban yahay 13 degmo doorasho.

1. Gobalka Maroodijeex Gobalka Maroodijeex waxaa kaadhka codbixinta qaatay 249,229 . Waxana aan qaadan kaadhka 25%. Waxay ay daraasadu oda ka rogaysaa 12.5% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin.
Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Maroodijeex waxaan ka codayn doonin 12.5%%.
 249, 229 (87.5%) = 218,075

Degmooyinka
Maroodijeex**

Tirad
Codad
ka

(%)
Degaam
ada
Kulmiye

Tirada
codadka

25% ***
-25% +25%

D/Gacan libaax 28,610 55% 15,735(-
25%)

11,802

D/Ibrahin kodbuur 29,052 100% 29,052 (-
25%)

21,789

D/26 June 30,837 100% 30,837 (-
25%)

23,128
D/Axmed dhagax 22,760 36% 8,221** 6165+5690
=11,855

D/Maxamuud
Haybe

29,747 0% 29,747
(+33%)

9,817

D/Farawayne 13,554 100% 13,554 (-
25%)

10,165

D/Daarasalaam 4,682 100% 4,682 (-
25%)

3,512

D/Laasgeel 3,132 100% 3,132 (-
25%)

2,349
D/Cadaadley 3,697 0% 0 (+9%)* 333
D/Sabowanaag 13,258 0% 0 (+9%)* 1,193
D/Balligubadle 11,623 43% 4,998** 2,905+3749

=
= 6654
D/Sallaxlay 12,135 0% 0 (+33%) 4005
D/Gabilay 46,143 100% 46,143 (-
25%)

34607

Wadarta Guud 249,22
9
(100%)

141,209

Wadarta Codayn
doonta (turnout =
87.5%)

218,07
5

123,561
(56,66%)

*** Maroodijeex 25% degaanka Kulmiye waxay u codayn doonan axsaabta kale Degmooyink Axmed Dhagax iyo Balaygubdleh ayaa isagu jira
64% iyo 36% degamada Kulmiye sida loo degan yahay (xisaabtana sidaa ayaa lagaga turjumay, -25% iyo plus 25%).
*Degamada cadaadalay, iyo sabowanaag ayaa 91% codkooda siin doona xisbiga Waddani
2. Gobalka Awdal Gobalka Awdal waxaa kaadhka codbixinta qaatay 102, 571 . Waxa aan qaadan kaadhka 43%. Waxa ay daraasadu odorasaysaa 50% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo 

Awadal Waxa aan ka codayn doonin 21.5%.  102,571 (79.5%) = 80,150 Gobalka Awdal Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye
Xisbiya Tirada (%) Kulmiye 36,068 45 Asaxaabta Mucaaridka 44,082 55 Wadarta Guud 80,150 100

3. Gobalka Saaxil Gobalka Saaxil kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 60, 817. Waxana kaadhka qaadan 30%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasaysaa 50% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Saaxil Waxaa ka codayn doona 60,871 (85%) = 51740. Gobalka Saaxil Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye
Xisbiyada Qaranka Tirada (%) Kulmiye 38,805 75 Asaxaabta Mucaaridka 12,935 25 Tirada Guud 51740 100

4. Gobalka Togdheer Gobalka Togdheer kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 147,440. Waxana kaadhka qaadan 21%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasaysaa
50% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Togdheer Waxaa ka codayn doona 147,440
(89.5%) = 131,959. Gobalka Togdheer Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye Xisbiyada Qaranka Tirada (%)
Kulmiye 75,217 57 Asxaabta Qaranka 56,742 43 Tirada guud 131,959 100

5. Sanaag Gobalka Sanaag kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 80,333. Waxanan kaadhka qaadan 6%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasayaa
3% tiro leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Sanaag waxaa ka codayn doona 80,333 (97%) =
77,923. Gobalka Sanaag Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye Xisbiyada Qaranka Tirada (%)
Kulmiye 30,390 39 Asxaabta Mucaaridka 47,533 61 Tirada Guud 77,923 100

6. Sool Gobalka Sool kaadka codbixinta waxaa qaatay 63,698. Waxana kaadhka qaadan 12%. Waxay ay daraasadu odorasayaa 6% tiro
leeg dadkii aan qaadan anay codayn dooonin. Iyadoo taa laga duulayo Sool Waxaa ka codayn doona 63,698 (94%) = 59,876

Gobalka Sanaag Codadka uu ka heli doono Xisbiga Kulmiye Xisbiyada Qaranka Tirada (%)
Kulmiye 41,314 69 Asxaabta Mucaaridka 18,562 31 Tirada Guud 59,879 100

Daraasada ayaa sadaalinaysa in Kulmiye u ku Xoogbadnaan doono, gobalda Maroodijeex, Saaxil, Togdheer iyo Sool. Gobalada Awdal iyo Sanaag ayay darasadani sadaalinysaa in xibsiga Waddani kaga xoogbato.

Kulmiye ayay gushu ku raaci doontaa isga oo heli doona 345,355 cod una dhiganta (55.73%). Tirada Guud ee codayn
doontana ay noqon doonto 619,723

FIIRO GAAR AH
Daraasadan ayaa laga yaaba inay yeelato 3% (margin of error) khalad ah maadama ay hawl wadeenadu ay ahaayeen xisbiga kulmiye. Iyadoo taa la tix galinayo waxa ay guushu ku raaci doontaa XISBIGA KULMIYE (52.73%)

Kulmiye oo Ku gulaysan doona 52.73% Codadka Caqalabiyadu ay noqonayso 326,780
 Gudoomiyaha Silsilada Mutadawiciinta
Axmed Cabdi Ciise
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